2024 has been eventful. While the year may be widely defined by political upheaval, financial markets remained eerily stable. Meanwhile, fine wine has continued to face challenges, with ongoing price corrections following the Covid-19 purchasing surge.
Beyond the natural end of an upward price cycle, our analysis of the fine wine market’s current state predicts that recent market activity (or lack thereof) marks a shift in the way fine wine will be acquired and appreciated in the future. Gone is the era of gluttonous buying in volume – in its place will grow cohorts of more conscientious collectors, seeking to drink better, less often, and prioritising provenance.
In practice, this poses a threat to the vast middle market – 3rd-5th growth Bordeaux, emerging brands from the New World that provide excellent value, but are ultimately drowned in the sea of choice for great drinking wines. Enjoying wine in the world’s top historic markets – the US, UK, and China – has become more complex and/or more expensive, so swathes of wines will need to find new homes in the mid-term.
With these macro-trends in mind, below we explore three possible pathways for fine wine activity in 2025.
Optimistic
If interest rates decrease in 2025, buyers may return on the basis that hedging in uncertain times becomes viable again. This could lead to a recovery in wine prices, particularly in desirable regions such as Champagne and Italy, where there is still room for growth. Hope could spring for a Bordeaux revival, given early rumours of a 2024 en primeur campaign at prices levels as low as the 2008 vintage. On the secondary market, auction houses continue to sell private cellars with improved provenance, offering time-sensitive access to ultra-rare bottles, thus redynamising the market.
Pessimistic
If economic uncertainty persists in 2025, the fine wine market may remain subdued. A reimposition of US tariffs on European wines could mute demand. Outside of the ultra-desirable brands, the mass of Burgundy’s 2023 campaign may struggle to sell through, reflecting the polarisation in buyer interest. The wider mid-market segment could continue to face pricing pressures. Meanwhile, iconic wines under strict allocation should remain stable, and top estates with historic stocks to spare may seek to generate momentum through offers of attractively priced, ultra-rare parcels.
Defensive
At 1275, our approach for 2025 will remain defensive. While we do not realistically expect a quick turnaround in price trajectories, we have witnessed stabilisation for top brands in the last months, and a continued opportunity to access previously unavailable back vintages and sought-after labels, particularly from Bordeaux. We will focus exclusively on the top 0.1% of the market, ensuring for our collectors a strategy of resilience in the short-term, and the build of iconic, perfect-provenance collections for the ages in the long-term.